John Hopley and Tasneem Motala*
South Africa’s once-thriving steel industry is in trouble. For decades, the sector was a cornerstone of industrialisation, providing essential materials for construction, manufacturing, and infrastructure. But today, it faces a crisis—one that threatens jobs, economic stability, and the country’s industrial future.
The recent announcement by ArcelorMittal South Africa (AMSA), the nation’s largest steel producer, that it plans to shut down key operations is a stark reminder of the industry's decline. Rising energy costs, outdated infrastructure, and a flood of cheaper imports have pushed the local steel sector to the edge. For workers, AMSA’s closure means job losses; for the economy, it signals a loss of industrial capacity that could take years to rebuild.
For several years, the South African government has been aware of the risks facing the steel industry. To mitigate some of the risks, revitalise the sector and drive growth, the South African Steel and Metal Fabrication Master Plan (SMP) was introduced in 2021. The ambitious plan aimed to boost local production and reduce reliance on imports.
In our research and evaluation of the current state of the steel industry against the SMP objectives, it is clear that the impact of the SMP has been underwhelming. Instead of sparking a revival, the SMP has struggled to address the fundamental issues crippling the industry. One expert best summed up the industry sentiment around the SMP by referring to it as a “disaster plan” rather than a master plan.
Shortly after the SMP was implemented, tariffs were introduced to protect local producers from cheaper imports, particularly from countries such as China that has lower electricity costs, better infrastructure, and more efficient logistics. However, these tariffs had the opposite effect. Instead of strengthening local steel production, particularly within AMSA, the tariffs instead allowed them to raise their prices to match imported steel, rather than undercut it. This, in turn, has increased costs for downstream industries such as construction, manufacturing, and automotive production, making it more difficult for these industries to remain competitive.
As a result, the tariffs failed to achieve their intended goal. Many businesses in steel-dependent industries have been forced to absorb higher costs, making them less competitive against international rivals—some of whom benefit from duty exemptions on imported finished products. Instead of reducing reliance on foreign steel, South Africa has only become more dependent on imports, contradicting the SMP’s original objectives.
Another major concern raised by industry experts is technological stagnation. While global competitors are shifting toward energy-efficient and low-carbon steel production, South Africa remains stuck with outdated and inefficient manufacturing processes. Without investment in modernisation and sustainable technology, the country risks falling even further behind in the global market.
One industry expert emphasised this issue, stating: “The problem is that AMSA’s plants are still using old blast furnace technology, while competitors globally have shifted to electric arc furnaces, which are more cost-effective and environmentally friendly. Without modernisation, we simply cannot compete.”
A key promise of the SMP was to protect and create jobs in the steel sector, particularly as employment was already in decline before the plan was introduced. However, the reality has been far from what was envisioned. Instead of stabilizing the workforce, the industry has experienced continued job losses, worsened by AMSA’s plant closures and shrinking demand for local steel.
According to Stats SA data, employment in the steel industry has steadily declined over the past decade. With AMSA’s recent closure announcements, thousands more jobs are now at risk. One industry expert confirmed these fears, stating: “The SMP promised job creation, but we’ve seen the opposite.”
Beyond job losses, infrastructure and logistics failures have further weakened the sector. The SMP recognised that poor transport networks are a major challenge, particularly when it came to moving raw materials and finished products efficiently. The plan aimed to improve rail and port efficiency to reduce costs and make local production more competitive. However, these improvements have not materialized—and in some cases, the situation has worsened.
South Africa’s freight rail system remains unreliable, forcing many steel producers to switch to costlier road transport, while port delays continue to impact exports. One steel manufacturer highlighted these inefficiencies, stating: “Getting raw materials to our plants has become a nightmare. Rail is unreliable, and road transport is expensive. It’s killing our margins and making local steel even less competitive.”
This supply chain bottleneck not only drives up production costs but also discourages foreign investment in the industry. Without serious government intervention, South Africa’s steel sector will struggle to compete with international players who benefit from lower logistic costs and more efficient infrastructure.
The impending closure of AMSA’s plants is more than just a corporate restructuring—it is a warning sign of systemic failure. If urgent action is not taken, South Africa could lose its steel industry entirely, becoming fully reliant on imports and stripping away a vital part of its industrial economy.
To prevent this, policymakers and industry leaders must act fast. The SMP needs urgent revision, focusing on energy security, infrastructure investment, and technological innovation. However, policy reforms alone will not be enough. The steel industry cannot survive on government intervention alone—there must be active participation from both the public and private sectors. Manufacturers, investors, and trade unions must work alongside policymakers to drive meaningful change. This includes incentives for modernisation, investment in green steel technology, and financing options for smaller steel producers to help them scale up. Without stronger collaboration, the sector will remain trapped in a cycle of stagnation and decline, further eroding South Africa’s industrial base.
Time is running out. If these issues remain unaddressed, the steel industry may soon become another casualty of economic mismanagement—leaving thousands unemployed and the country without a critical manufacturing backbone.
*John Hopley is an MBA graduate of Stellenbosch Business School and an MD within the steel industry. Tasneem Motala is the Head of the MBA Programme at Stellenbosch Business School and a Senior Lecturer in Operations Management.